Getting harder in the Trump era to tell the players even with a scorecard

CPT | County GOP votes on endorsements today 

Things are seldom what they seem;

Skim milk masquerades as cream.

— Gilbert & Sullivan​

Cuyahoga County Republican executive and central committee members will gather this afternoon to make their endorsements for the May primary.

The marquee endorsement will come in the governor’s slot, where Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine is expected to handily defeat current Ohio Lt. Governor Mary Taylor.

Last week the Ohio GOP endorsed DeWine by a thumping 59-2 vote. Still, Taylor has refused to concede either quietly or graciously. What’s interesting about this contest is the subtext behind it.

While party insiders all seem to back DeWine, Taylor is working to court Trump voters, and could be in a position to upset DeWine if she succeeds in connecting with the Trump base. She has the nominal backing of term-limited Gov. John Kasich but has done her best to disavow it, because Kasich is anathema not only to that base, but also to many others throughout the party for a host of reasons: Kasich has been a Trump antagonist dating back to 2015, very publicly declining to appear at the 2016 Republican Convention held here in his home state where Trump officially received the GOP Presidential nomination. Kasich’s decision to support Medicaid expansion over the express opposition of many of his own state legislators further alienated him from parts of the GOP.

All of this was backdrop to the ouster of Kasich ally Matt Borges from the chair of the Ohio GOP by Jane Timken early last year, with the support of the President. Kasich forces, we hear, now think they have a chance to retake control of the state party, which could be significant if Kasich does indeed mount a 2020 primary challenge against Trump.

But any chance for Kasich people — dare we call them GOP moderates? — to regain state party control would go out the window if Taylor becomes the state standard bearer this year. So one might conclude that even though Kasich has endorsed Taylor almost against her will, he would prefer to see her defeated by DeWine.

The battle for the GOP nomination for the right to challenge US Senator Sherrod Brown this fall also has national implications for the GOP. Both Congressman Jim Renacci, R-16 of Wadsworth and Cleveland businessman Mike Gibbons are, like Taylor, touting their Trump bona fides. Renacci is claiming that the President encouraged him to switch from the governor’s race to the senate battle following the sudden and unexpected withdrawal of frontrunner and state treasurer Josh Mandel. But he may actually be US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s preference instead of Trump’s because he is likely to be far less of a maverick than Gibbon.

The takeaway from all this may be that the Ohio GOP is much less united at the top than the state’s Democrats in this election cycle. But we are a long way from seeing how that might translate in November. 

Meanwhile, at least one Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Cleveland mayor and Congressman Dennis Kucinich, believes he has a real shot to capture some 2016 Trump voters. He’s probably right, but in the today’s topsy-turvy political climate, the populist Kucinich was just endorsed this past week by the Cuyahoga County Progressive Caucus. That may have been largely a hometown boy vote, but it nonetheless points out the increasing inadequacy of labels as a guide to who stands where for whom and what.

CPT: Marcia Fudge, County Council, County Judicial Races, US Senate

Cuyahoga Politics Today

New Political Season brings critical choices, questions

What is the value of a Fudge endorsement?

How does Mandel's exit affect GOP Senate Primary?

If it seems that politics is never-ending, that‘s because it’s true. Our interests, and those of our community — however we may define “interests” and “community” — are being negotiated, threatened, defended, or traded away continually by public officials who appear on your ballot. So it behooves us to pay attention to what our public officials do and say.

Consider that in a little less than 72 hours last week, roughly 100 local Democrats chose the newest member of county council and made recommendations for who should get the party’s endorsement in various judicial and legislative primary contests on the May 8 ballot.  Those choices, made in most cases by people you likely don’t know or seldom think of, have consequences with close-to-home effect upon who gets put in jail, where your taxes go, and which sections of our community get treated better than others.

That likely doesn’t sound fair, but it’s the way our democracy works. And if you don’t like it, you have a real chance to change it this year. And if you decide to get involved, you may set in motion positive changes not only for your neighborhood, but for your judicial system, your state government,  your country, and the world.

That’s not hyperbole. It’s the result of living in Cuyahoga County, which still remains the dominant political goldmine in a crucial battleground state.

Democrats hold the lion’s share of offices in Cuyahoga County. Republicans control some of the suburbs, especially those on the county’s outskirts. Though they are largely irrelevant to county politics — their political interests are generally expressed through the business community — the GOP functions pretty much the same way in its spheres, that is to say through a network of volunteer central and executive committees and ex officio  structures that carry great weight in influencing who gets on the ballot.

So last Thursday, 46 of a possible 75 or so precinct committee members who live in County Council District 10 — Cleveland Heights, East Cleveland, University Heights, Bratenahl, and Cleveland Wards 8 and 10, met at Dem Party headquarters to choose a successor to Anthony Hairston, who resigned his county council seat after winning the Cleveland Ward 10 seat vacated by Jeff Johnson, who opted to challenge Mayor Frank Jackson. [Johnson came in third in the September mayoral primary; he’s now running for the State Senate seat he had 20 years ago.]

Successful professional politicians chart their careers and their alliances with great care. Hairston’s county-to-city council switch was in preparation for at least a year, which meant that his council seat was potentially in play for at least that long. Michael Houser, who won the intraparty vote last week to replace Hairston, had long ago secured the latter’s support to replace him. In Cleveland, that would have been sufficient; a councilperson who leaves under honorable circumstances is permitted to designate a successor who is then ratified by the council.

County Council functions under a different set of rules, set by state law. When a vacancy occurs between elections, the successor is chosen by the Party of the outgoing incumbent. Even though the process is different, neither Houser nor Hairston gave much thought to any particular challenger. So Houser moved into an apartment in the district and apparently expected pretty much to waltz in to the seat.

But the unexpected is part of what makes politics so fascinating. Shortly after the November election, Cleveland Heights mayor Cheryl Stephens realized that a power realignment among council members meant that her colleagues were unlikely to reelect her as mayor. Moreover, she was about to leave her job as director of acquisitions, dispositions & development at the County Land Bank to take a job in Akron. Suddenly, she was seen as a preferred alternative to Houser by many party activists.

For starters, Stephens has an accomplished resume as a public official in both elected and managerial roles. Of perhaps greater weight politically, she represented a chance for the Heights forces to regain the seat that had gone to Clevelander Hairston when Julian Rogers had resigned to take a job with Cleveland State.

Stephens was especially appealing as a potential candidate to Congresswoman Marcia Fudge, who has increasingly sought to play a larger role in local politics. Once Stephens was officially offered her new job — as president and CEO of the East End Neighborhood Development Corporation — and prepared to leave the Land Bank, the conflict between her work and the part-time council position evaporated, and she agreed to seek the county council position.

Suddenly, Stephens seemed the favorite to succeed Hairston on county council.

In politics the currency that matters is votes, and so for 45 days or so Houser and Stephens sought to secure commitments from the precinct committee members of District 10. Fudge’s involvement put a strain on political and personal loyalties. Hairston had pledged his support to Houser but wanted to stay in her good graces. Julian Rogers, the Democratic city leader in Cleveland Heights, is tight with Hairston both politically and personally, but with a base that heavily favored Stephens. County Executive Armond Budish is a Fudge political ally but Houser was one of his executive assistants.

This really should have been no contest. Everyone recognizes the weight of a member of Congress. But for some reason, Rep. Fudge has established a track record of making endorsements but failing to put substance and resources behind them. Thus, she made a robocall on Stephens behalf but did not make the dozen or so phone calls that could have secured the seat for Stephens.

The immediate result was a dramatic 24-22 second-round ballot win for Houser at the party headquarters on Superior Ave. But this small episode has other winners and losers.

Stephens’ combination of experience, expertise, and leadership suggest she would have been a formidable representative of District 10 and a valuable asset to the county on all issues related to development and governmental performance. These were stated priorities when the battle was waged and won over reforming county government.

Houser is much more of an unknown quantity. He has long been eager to win elective office but already whispers abound that he will take his orders from County Executive Budish.

Houser takes office immediately and will need to tend his political flanks immediately. The filing deadline for the office is February 7 and a Board of Elections spokesperson has confirmed this seat will be on the May 8^th primary ballot, providing an early test of political strength for Houser and any challengers, including possibly Stephens, who is rumored to be considering a run.

A larger issue remains, and it was on display two days after the District vote. What does it mean when the Congresswoman cannot secure a seat for a highly qualified candidate of her choosing over a political novice? Let us note that race was not a consequential factor in this contest; both Houser and Stephens are black. But given that Fudge has chosen increasingly to involve herself in local party politics — she pushed for the election of Shontel Brown as local party chair; she has taken early sides in several  state legislative battles, even supporting challengers over incumbents — her constituents are entitled to question her end game.

This is no idle question. There are four open countywide judicial seats in this year’s election cycle. There are no black or Hispanic male judges on the county bench. Five African Americans and one Hispanic — three men, three women — are among the competitors for the four seats. Fudge is widely regarded to have negotiated with some party powers to secure endorsements of two black women lawyers in their respective races. Yet when forty city and ward leaders from across the county met last Saturday to present recommendations to the party’s Central Committee, which will meet this Saturday to act on those recommendations, not a single judicial candidate of color received a recommendation, and Fudge’s two choices were defeated handily.

We will explore this issue in tomorrow’s post.

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Last week brought news that State Treasurer Josh Mandel, possibly the least-liked state public official of this century, was ending his campaign to win the GOP nomination for US Senate and challenge incumbent US Senator Sherrod Brown. Mandel was expected to defeat his challenger for the nomination, wealthy Cleveland businessman Mike Gibbons. But Mandel withdrew citing an undisclosed medical issue concerning his wife.

Gibbons does not have a clear field, however. Congressman Jim Renacci, who was in the midst of an uphill battle for the GOP gubernatorial nomination against Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine and Lt. Governor Mary Taylor, is now shifting over to the Senate race.

Gibbons is a relative unknown politically. He will be a guest tonight on “Race Relations in America with Laverne and Jack”, which airs Tuesdays from 6-7PM on WERE TalkCLE Radio 1490/AM.

Mandel was such a distasteful candidate — he specializes in ugly campaigns — but it seems that he will be replaced by another Trumpster.

While we are on the subject of that Senate contest, we understand why many Republicans don’t like to talk about the racist who heads their party. But we would like to hear what our own Ohio Senators, Sherrod Brown and Rob Portman, think about Trump’s “s***hole countries” comment.

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